Deep change. Systemically complex.
Don’t be surprised.
Healthcare is changing quickly. You already knew that.
The election multiplied the uncertainty of that change, the rate of change, the complexity. That’s obvious. But what will actually happen, how soon, and in what way—much less what will happen in your neighborhood—is not obvious at all.
Why? Because healthcare is a vast complex adaptive system. To understand the coming changes, we need not only to think about what will be done to it by legislation, we need to analyze how all its different parts will react to that new legislation, and even to the perception of the coming legislation—and then how other parts will react to those reactions, and then the implications of those meta-reactions, and on and on.
I told you it was complex.
In the coming months, throughout healthcare and its supporting industries, organizations will be making moves that from the outside seem sudden and drastic. They will do this to protect themselves against what they see as a sudden increase in risk headed their way. They will do this well in advance of any changes in the law. Then they will react to each others’ sudden, drastic moves, and others will react to those….
The way these changes show up in your part of healthcare will seem chaotically random. But they aren’t random. They are complex.
The fact that they are complex, not random, means that we can think about them. We can analyze them.
We can not be surprised.
That’s my job. That’s what I do.
Because I hate surprises.
I’m a healthcare futurist. I specialize in helping you make sense of our healthcare industry, in the U.S. and around this big global market.
The future of healthcare is not all whiz-bang futuristic technology, as some showmen would have you believe. It’s about how the economics in healthcare are turning inside out, making some new tech laughable, and other new tech the perfect answer, making yesterday’s business models into one-way traps, causing today’s organizational structures to fold and wither like paper in a fire. If you don’t understand the systemic complexity of healthcare, you are going to be surprised, and it won’t be a party.
I help you work through the issues and challenges, so you don’t devise:
• an app or dongle that no one will buy,
• a procedure that no one will pay for,
• a career that will no longer exist,
• a wrong-headed and ill-fated investment,
• or a merger than will sink of its own weight.
You may be an employer, a pension plan, or a union who is a big purchaser of healthcare—or a consumer. You know that the way you’ve been paying for healthcare is unsustainable, and you suspect that the coming changes will make your situation far worse, not better. I show you how much power you actually have in determining what you get.
Here’s the thing: There’s no point fooling ourselves. There is a revolution happening now in healthcare. We are already seeing the start of the shift from paying for “volume” to paying for value—and right in the middle of this politics is tipping over the board again. Understanding what is happening goes to the heart of whether your venture will be a success or failure. If you want to pretend this complex discontinuous change won’t affect you or your organization, then bless your heart—and you won’t need me.
But if you’ve been paying attention, you know that some of your competitors are gaining that deeper understanding and are adapting. It’s likely you will get to know them a bit better when they buy up your remaining assets. Or when you buy theirs. Which will it be?
That’s why I’ve written a handbook:
I help you understand the complexity of healthcare, the incentives of each part of it, the revenue streams, the energy sources—because when you understand that, you can see where the levers are that can actually cause change and you can see how that will affect you.
I start with the big picture. And it is amazingly big. I’ve been speaking in Canada, Europe, Asia, the Middle East as well as across the United States because healthcare costs have been rising fast everywhere. I lay out the lessons being learned. Then I present the framework for change, which is the 7 Levers of Change and the action steps. There are even checklists.
This is truly a manual.
It’s all based on what the revolutionaries are actually doing now, what they’re learning, and how they can save you a whole lot of trouble, maybe your career.
If you’re already in this fight to make the shift to paying less for great health outcomes, or if you want to be, I can show you whom to learn from and how to find allies. You don’t have to be alone in this. In fact, when you find your allies, it starts to feel like something worth doing, something exciting. Something to be proud of.
And it is.
That’s because this new kind of healthcare, this shift that we see happening largely to the side of or even in spite of the political randomizing, is not about rationing and cutbacks and takeaways. It’s not about getting less.
It’s about more, smarter, healthcare,
where you need it,
when you need it,
what you really need.
It’s about healthcare you can feel safe and proud to offer your children and your communities, healthcare that doesn’t steal your house or your car because you can’t afford to pay, and when you’re most vulnerable.
How? Well, the answer is mostly not in Washington, it’s not conservative or liberal.
The answer is mostly not about who pays for healthcare. The answer is mostly about whom we pay, what we pay them for, and in what way we pay them. That’s where the levers of change are.
There are certainly many ways to screw up this great change, and there are certainly powerful forces trying to just that. But I can show you who’s making it work and how. What I’d most like to show you are the real, demonstrably successful ways to make the Next Healthcare work for you, your organization, your community.
Ask me how I can help you.
– Joe Flower